Probability is one of the least understood of maths concepts, especially with young children.
By year 5 children are expected to be able to say whether events are impossible , unlikely , likely or certain.
They should also be able to say which events have an even chance of happening (such as tossing a coin and getting a head), but they should be careful not to say that if there are two possibilities, they are equally likely. For example, there are two possibilities – I might buy a new Jaguar today or I might not. Unfortunately, these two events are not equally likely.
Another example of this is if I choose a number between 1 and 5. Is the number I choose a prime number? As there are three prime numbers between 1 and 5 (2, 3 and 5) and two numbers that are not, there is not an even chance that I will choose a prime number; rather there is a 3 in 5 chance, or 60% chance.
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